Polling News & Notes Overlooked Recent Polling And Insights

From Rove.com
February 5, 2009

Public Opinion Souring On Stimulus Bill

Polls in recent weeks have shown support for the economic stimulus ranging from 38% to 70%. Where does Americans’ support really lie, and what accounts for differences in support? Question wording produces some of the variation.

Descriptions of the stimulus that focus on the individual components (tax cuts, health care, education, etc.) fare better than generic descriptions that only include a price tag, or those mentioning the bill will cause deficit spending. A Jan. 21-24 Diageo/Hotline poll found support was 12 points higher (66% vs. 54%) when components of the stimulus were detailed.

But question wording isn’t everything—support for the stimulus has been slipping as the debate continues. Similarly worded questions asked by CNN/ORC from Jan. 12-15, and Gallup on Jan. 27 found support slipped from 58% to 52%. Here are recent questions on the stimulus, ranked by their support:

Poll	Dates	Wording	Support	Oppose
ABC News / Wash. Post	Jan 13-16	Would you support or oppose new federal spending of about 800 billion dollars on tax cuts, construction projects, energy, education, and health care to try to stimulate the economy?	70%	27%
Diageo/ Hotline	Jan 21-24	As proposed, the $825 billion economic stimulus plan would include $550 billion in new spending for alternative energy technology, roads and bridges, state governments and local school districts, and increasing benefits for the unemployed. The remaining part of the stimulus package contains $275 billion in tax cuts and credits for individuals and for business to help generate more jobs. In general, do you support or oppose Congress and the President passing this $825 billion economic stimulus plan to jumpstart the economy, even if it means increasing the federal deficit in order to do so?	66%	27%
CNN/ORC	Jan 12-15	Would you favor or oppose a proposal to attempt to stimulate the economy by increasing federal spending on construction projects and economic assistance to needy Americans by about 800 billion dollars?	58%	40%
Diageo/ Hotline	Jan 21-24	In general, do you support or oppose Congress and the President passing an $825 billion economic stimulus plan to jumpstart the economy, even if it means increasing the federal deficit in order to do so?	54%	34%
Gallup	Jan 27	As you may know, Congress is considering a new economic stimulus package of at least 800 billion dollars. Do you favor or oppose Congress passing this legislation?	52%	37%

A question from Gallup’s Jan. 30-Feb. 1 poll may be the best indicator of public opinion.

Gallup gave respondents the choices of passing the bill as it now stands (38% support), passing it only after major changes (37%), and rejecting it outright (17%). A majority supports passing some form of stimulus, but the current plan barely garners plurality support. What would improve the stimulus package’s popularity?

A Jan. 27-28 FOX News poll suggests tax cuts, not spending. When asked to choose between using taxpayer dollars to increase government spending on infrastructure projects or cutting taxes on businesses and individuals, voters chose cutting taxes 50% to 29%, with 14% volunteering that the plan should do both.

Look for more Polling News and Notes in the coming weeks monitoring polling on the stimulus, especially trends from retesting the same questions.